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Time for round two - this time to talk about my talking about Blackjack in the previous video. And that's the last I'm gonna say about that. Enjoy!
The first video - https://youtu.be/qa4pEMtjW3E
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By Fran

16 thoughts on “Positively losing at blackjack”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars amoruzz says:

    I always played 5 card poker or 21.
    The only blackjack I have ever heard of is the wrestler Black Jack Mulligan.
    I used to play Rummy and some other card games with grandmother and her friends. Just because they made me sit in, lol.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars lightning demolition says:

    Your comment about coming to the table with $100 instead of $1000 being a better strategy might be right for you but for others who have a larger risk tolerance the larger amount allows them to play longer. The house statistically wins and for those that can afford it a larger bank let's them play all day.
    Myself, I haven't voluntarily gambled a dime since I took a statistics class in college. Not even raffles. I will give away money but not have any expectation of a return.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars cityboyzz1 says:

    You played strategy and you came out ahead and walking away was part of your strategy from the beginning. It's great to read the comments but its better to walk away and let the purists debate each other. your vids are just the start of the conversation. Thanks for being part of my day

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tjay WASHINGTON says:

    Go to your nearest off track, learn how to read the worlds greatest newspaper, THE DRF – the daily racing form, can become the ultimate math EXPERIENCE……learn all the abbreviations first, then your half way home. I swear you can win, if you have math skills. Sadly they closed my local offtrack, because yhey would not allow a few slots in there………now we have a gazillion slots and NO OFFTRACKS NEAR BY. My wife picked so many longshots, I miss it, sad, bummer, online denied my greendot, it worked for one mnnth-then, the card co. which I preload, said cant use it at online horse racin, that sucks…….why, ? what happened.? its a mess

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John Scarfone says:

    Perhaps some commenters are responding to the fact that you don’t seem to be fully clear (even in this video) that there is always a slight house edge. This means that even though your strategy is about as good as it can be, over a long enough period you will lose. I don’t mean by not ever leaving the table but by leaving the table with winnings (or losses) using your strategy and trying again another time (and doing this over and over). You don’t seem to realize that these are equivalent situations. Also, if the shoes are truly determined by a random process, changing tables has no effect. Shoes may be favorable to the player or the dealer but it says nothing about the next shoe. Your strategy is great but there’s no getting around the house odds. Quit while you’re ahead (if you get ahead) and stop playing *forever*.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TYPE xxi - WOLF says:

    ah, those hands were on my mind but I was not sure how those cards would count in that game, but I loved the whole video a lot, the explanations and insights about decision making behind like raising the bar after some success.
    Likelihood is key to manage risks ypu might wanna take

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kregger says:

    I think a lot of people were probably thinking of the dealer having one deck and shuffling it every game.

    I'm really impressed with your knowledge of how to play and read the cards. That takes years of playing. An awesome vid as always, Fran. Thank you.

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Simon Ilett says:

    I've only been to a casino once. I figured I was ok to lose $10, but if I won something it'd be a bonus. My theory was to keep track of that original $10 and once it was spent I would stop. Anything I might win I would put into a different pocket, and once I'd used up the original $10 I would walk away. Anything that ended up in the other pocket was either a win/up or it would simply offset the complete $10 loss. I broke the $10 into 20c coins and proceeded to feed one coin at a time into a pokey machine. Inevitably I lost the whole $10 and didn't have a single win. It was a 1/2hr or so I figured was ok for the experience, but not something I've ever felt the need to do again…$$ are better in my pocket than in the casino's🤣👍🇦🇺

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars WFKU Radio says:

    A couple things. I live in Las Vegas. There is still 5$ blackjack 6 shoe, 2/1 payouts on blackjacks, some even with hit on soft 17. I can count cards, its actually not that hard. Its much harder at a table of course, means no drinking, no fun, no banter, but I can do it. I was taught to never surrender, no matter what. I found your video interesting and might try it sometime. However I watched you hit a 12 when dealer had 13. I would never do that. One more factor, have you ever counted cards in video blackjack? I have done so often, keeping records after every hand and marking the count. I have done this enough to have some real data. your hit against a 13 was probably ok because video blackjack is always a low deck. It helps to pretend you are playing against a deck with missing face cards. I.E. Don't play video blackjack. Walking away is the best strategy, good! There are absolutely streaks, most strategies involve betting schemes that take maximum advantage of them.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Top Load Tele says:

    "Entropy" is the term used to describe the degree of randomness within any given sequence and is the heartbeat of Cryptography and Blockchains. Computer gaming and all modern slot machines are based on various RNG's or Random Number Generators programmed into in the chip set. At a live table, a pro dealer can hand shuffle in such a way the deck order favors the house even more than the stated odds which is likely also programmed in the various RNG's. Online casino's can manipulate everything, including holding funds or making it very difficult to collect in the event you win, while making deposits very fast and easy unless your bank forbids such activity which is common. If one must play… go to a live land casino where at the very least you can walk out with your winnings at anytime. Good Luck!!

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars jmiskinis says:

    I look forward to watching this. A friend bought a professional blackjack course in the late 1980s, but at this time I am more interested in how your TISSOT wristwatch is fairing, and if you are happy with the item. 🙂 John

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Codyjrt says:

    I always look forward to your videos Fran.
    I don't really gamble but a few years back my wife and I went to a casino to see a show. After the show we were walking past the slots and I told her I wanted to throw 5 dollars in it. 3+ hours later we walked out with almost 3 thousand dollars. I bought the digital oscilloscope I've wanted and gave the rest to her.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars mrfoodarama says:

    I think many people see a thumbnail and video title and have a comment ready to go before even watching what's in the video. I imagine that's got to be frustrating. I really enjoyed the blackjack video and loved your description of casinos, Lol 😂

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Keri Szafir says:

    It's perfectly normal to concentrate on one thing at a time – getting caught up in the thing we want to show rather than our appearance. Moreover, I can't just talk all the time like you do (though I see a lot of post-production cuts), so when I'm trying to explain the repair or creative process I'm doing at the moment while doing it, I fail miserably. You'll see.

    I'm not even gonna try earning my living at a casino either. Doing repairs for people is my way, though it's not too profitable. Considering some sex work too.
    As for shoes, I still prefer high heels. Or combat boots when hiking, going on urbex trips or working at a construction site.

    By the way, be sure to view the ENTIRE video, people!

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars BobC says:

    There are so many shoe-related factors. The number of decks in the shoe, how many hands/cards being played will trigger a reshuffle, the number of cards "burned" at the start of the shoe, and so on. Most casinos use mechanical shufflers for large shoes, though a manual shuffle may be requested (which I did when I wanted to eat a snack). A fresh shoe with new decks may also be requested. Not always granted, but it's always OK to ask.

    Dealers are highly trained to do proper shuffles, but in rare circumstances it is possible for players (or bystanders) to affect manual shuffles, to throw the dealer off their stride and make the shoe be significantly less random. This is one of the reasons I always do lots of talking at the table: It sets a baseline I can then use both strategically and tactically. When a flubbed shuffle is possible, it still takes a fair amount of play to determine how badly the shuffle was borked. And then there's the "Eye in the Sky": I've seen pit bosses hold their earpieces for a moment then come over and physically remove the shoe from the table, replacing it with another. It's all part of the game.

    I will also walk the tables at a casino to see how well the dealers are trained, how consistent they are, how closely they are monitored, and so on. But I'm looking more to avoid a sloppy house than for any advantage or opportunity. Poorly run pits are, well, the pits, and can suck the fun out of a table. I like houses where dealers get to stay at a table long enough to form relationships with the players, and where dealers will return to a given table fairly often. It is so much fun when an entire table gleefully welcomes the return of a favorite dealer. It's all entertainment, and we're playing with money!

    If you track all cards coming out of the shoe, as the shoe gets closer to the reshuffle point the "next card" odds will change depending on the cards you have seen. Put bluntly, cards that have been seen can't still be in the shoe! There are multiple systems that may be used to track the general state of large shoes, most of which have fun names like: "Dibble-Dabble", "Sweet-Sour", "Old Man" and so on. I only used the simplest systems that, for me, were "alcohol tolerant". I could "count" (track) every card in up to 4 decks: Beyond that I used "sense of the shoe" methods.

    There are betting strategies that go with the shoe state. For example, some houses/dealers will do a reshuffle when the shoe state changes too much, too quickly. For example, "too many" aces coming out too soon. If you track this, and learn to predict the conditions triggering a reshuffle, then you have a small window before that reshuffle to try to take advantage of the very slight change in the state of the shoe. More typically, I'm tracking the number of "wins" left in the show and adjust my bets accordingly. All these strategies take the size of your bank into account, but they're not "alcohol tolerant" for me, so I tend to drop to the table minimum when the shoe has too few "wins" left in it.

    You certainly can do "play, play, play", but it does require viewing your bank as an entertainment budget, rather than some kind of business investment. When things got exciting at my table, I'd switch to minimum bets and join in the fun. When I saw a real opportunity, I'd jump all over it, and actually say why I was jumping in. I wouldn't mention my tracking the state of the shoe, but instead blame other players at the table for "wasting all the tens" or something.

    Blackjack can be SO much more than beating the dealer or the house. When losing money becomes some of the best entertainment you've ever had, well worth the price paid.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars fluffy says:

    "Hey, it's Fran, in the office" just doesn't have the right ring to it.

    I had no idea that surrendering is an option and that clearly does change the strategy *immensely*, which is probably why many (if not most) casinos don't allow it.

    Also I thought you made it pretty clear in the original video that you weren't teaching people how to gamble, you were teaching them the actual strategy to play the game.

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